Police overestimation of criminal career homogeneity

摘要

Police presumptions about criminal career trajectories have been little studied. The exploratory\udstudy reported here involved 42 police staff of varying rank and experience. Participants were\udasked to complete a questionnaire which asked them to predict the type of offence that an\udindividual with specified prior record was most likely to commit next. Participating police\udpersonnel substantially overstated the homogeneity of criminal careers, i.e. the nature of prior\udoffences determined their prediction of their next offence more than available official data would\uddeem reasonable. An incidental finding was that officers who rated the probability of further\udoffending highest were also those who thought criminal careers most specialised. Theimplications\udfor operational police decision making are discussed and held to be profound.